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Ethereum ETFs Approval Odds Plummet: Now Just 35% Chance

Ethereum ETFs Approval Odds Plummet: Now Just 35% Chance

According to leading market analysts and specialists, the probability of the highly anticipated Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) being approved is decreasing. They cite a notable decline in the likelihood of acceptance over time.

Approval Odds for Ethereum ETFs Drop to 35%

Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, said on Monday that there has been a significant decline in the likelihood of Ethereum spot ETF certification over the last few months. Eric Balchunas informed the Bitcoin community of the upgrade via the social media network X, formerly Twitter.

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An expert has reduced the likelihood of US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by May to just 35%. This marks a notable departure from Balchunas’s initial prediction in January of a 70% chance of approval by May. The Bloomberg analyst stated unequivocally that they believe the Commission should approve the spot ETFs for several reasons.

This time, he claims, “none of the sources or indicators that gave them a bullish 2.5-month outlook” are currently available for Bitcoin Spot ETFs. This only highlights the ambiguity around the goods in the larger cryptocurrency market.

Balchunas has urged the community not to entirely give up hope because there still remains a chance that Ethereum ETFs will receive approval. After all, a 35% odd is not 0%, indicating a long-term possibility of acceptance.

Balchunas’s tweet reacted to a piece by Fox Journalist Eleanor Terret, in which she discussed her thoughts. Eleanor Terret brought up Jake Chervinsky’s views, saying they were consistent with what she “has been hearing” about the approvals.

However, that doesn’t mean the products won’t be approved within the year. She added that “the May deadline is rapidly approaching” and that there hasn’t been “any significant interaction from SEC officials” regarding applications. Terret stated that “the agency might take a nosedive on their engagement in April or May,” indicating some hope regarding the approval.

The Cycle of ETH Spot ETFs Differs From That of BTC Spot ETFs

James Seyffart, another analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence ETFs, has also offered his thoughts on the subject. Seyffart added, “The Ethereum ETF cycle presently seems to be the reverse of the Bitcoin ETF approval probabilities,” according to Eric Balchunas’s observations.

“His optimism decreases as they observe and hear more, and as they do not observe and hear more,” Seyffart emphasized. Seyffart predicts the approval date to be less than “73 days away,” with no apparent progress made.

Notably, Polymarket, the most significant prediction market in the world, has also verified the drop in acceptance odds. The platform’s data indicates that the probability of an Ethereum ETF is currently 36%.

Ethereum price chart
ETH trading at $4,001 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

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